Nigeria Still in Search of Democracy : governance in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Two days ago I read a research paper by Larry Diamond of the Hoover Institution, titled “Nigeria in Search of Democracy.” It was written 42 years ago, in 1983: a period when Nigeria’s civilian government under President Shehu Shagari collapsed and gave way to the military rule of General Muhammadu Buhari. Diamond, then a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, offered a cautionary message to Nigeria’s new military leadership: without accountability, democracy cannot survive.

Nigeria was only twenty-three years old then, yet the country was already showing deep signs of decay: political glut, rampant bribery, corruption, economic failure, government inefficiency, and a civil service that grew more rotten with each new regime.

“Accountability strikes at the very heart of the problem of future Nigerian democracy,” Diamond wrote, exposing the truth that a country without systems of accountability is ill-equipped to sustain democratic governance.

More than four decades later, Larry Diamond’s warning feels prophetic.

No one needs reminding of Nigeria’s current condition. It dominates African headlines and has increasingly penetrated into western media.  Still, at risk of sounding like a broken record, Nigeria today is a country in shambles. Economically, politically and socially. One New York Times headline captured it best, Nigeria is confronting its worst [economic] crisis in a generation. Terrorism is at an all time high. The naira is at an all time low. Religious and ethnic divisions are re emerging, reshaping a national reality I barely recognize.

And yet, amid this turmoil, there is the emergence of Artificial Intelligence, bringing with it urgent political, ethical, and democratic questions that Nigeria cannot afford to ignore.

Artificial Intelligence as a Political Agenda

Artificial Intelligence continues to grow in all parts of the world. It does not care that your country is developing, nor will it wait for your country to stabilise its economy. The integration of AI into many facets of our life has been swift. It is used in education, healthcare, social services; some countries (like Albania) are even toying with the implementation of an AI political member. Countries use AI for war. Some countries use AI powered spyware to surveil citizens both within and outside national borders. Multinational corporations use AI to analyze civilian data all over the world. Sophisticated AI powered algorithms can quickly create deepfake videos, fake social-media accounts, and other AI-driven content capable of spreading propaganda during democratic processes like elections. 

To put it simply, AI is a global phenomenon. It is a new resource (widely compared to oil) with the potential to contribute immense benefit or detriment to a nation. 

As someone deeply invested in Nigeria’s advancement, I often ask myself: what is Nigeria’s plan for AI?

Historically, Nigeria has occupied the role of raw-material supplier, lacking the infrastructural capabilities for the production of value-added products. Despite being a major oil producer, we don’t export refined petroleum. Instead, we ship crude oil. The same pattern applies to cocoa, palm oil, rubber, coal, limestone, groundnuts, etc. Will AI be the same?

Millions of Nigerians generate data every day through their engagement with foreign digital platforms such as Meta and TikTok. Yet the economic value derived from this data does not benefit Nigerians. Should this trend be ignored, AI risks becoming another extractive industry where Nigeria, once again, will be designated the role of raw data supplier, rather than a producer and deployer of AI systems. 

Ignoring AI will be a terrible mistake. Still, there are some Nigerians that argue that the deep social contradictions (like the ones described above) must be resolved, first, before the country focuses on any AI agenda. 

At this point you may be wondering, couldn’t Nigeria do both? I do not have an answer to this question; but I am tempted to decline. A successful national AI agenda requires a commitment and discipline that is yet to be seen from Nigeria’s federal government. And if the 2023 fuel subsidy agenda is to be used as a yardstick of success, my prediction fades further to the negative. 

Regardless, AI raises important substantive questions for Nigeria’s commitment to democracy. 

These questions revolve around data sovereignty, the space for media in politics and the knowledge crisis that comes with AI. Whether or not the country is ready to move forward with AI is a political debate and an urgent research agenda for Nigeria’s democratic future. This is where I hope to come in, looking  into these salient questions and providing possible solutions for anyone willing to listen.

In the posts that follow, I plan to unpack these questions one by one. Stay tuned!